(2021-07-08) Zvi M Covid 7/08 Delta Takes Over

Zvi Mowshowitz: Covid-19 7/08: Delta Takes Over. Delta variant is now two thirds of sequenced samples from the past week,

we’ve already ‘taken the hit’ to the reproduction rate, mostly, and if we can stabilize things one final time, then unless there’s a new even worse variant then the last scare is over.

we’ll be counting on further vaccinations and on past vaccinations kicking in. We should have enough momentum there to still get us over the finish line, but in many places it’s going to be close.

The Numbers

Vaccinations

If you have had one shot of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, should you then get a shot of Pfizer or Moderna? If it is available, absolutely, yes you should

Yet because it is not Officially Recognized all the Very Serious People are falling in line and finding ways to tie themselves up in knots and pretend that a second shot would not be useful

More vaccinations are the only viable way to deal with Delta

Delta Variant

point in the direction of a smaller wave, and there’s one that towers over the rest of them, which is that vaccinations will continue until morale improves

There’s also the seasonality perspective. This week, we saw a 21% increase in cases. A year ago this week, we saw a 21% increase in cases, both with similar regional patterns

My baseline scenario continues to be that cases rise for a bit, but things stabilize in most places before reaching levels that require behavioral adjustments, especially by the vaccinated. But I do continue to expect some regional/local issues in places with lower vaccination rates.

Scott Alexander Analyzes Lockdowns

What was the right rate of mandated lockdown, given our ability to prioritize measures? My belief is that private action reacts better and the control systems are very strong, and that the real reason to do lockdowns is the tail risk of complete disasters

Once we got past the first few months, I’m firmly in the ‘we did too much locking down on the margin’ camp. I believe things would have gone better if we had let people make more of their own decisions.