(2021-12-23) Karnofsky Bet With Zvi About Omicron

Holden Karnovsky: Bet with Zvi Mowshowitz about Omicron variant. Zvi Mowshowitz and I have agreed to the following bet... The concept this is trying to capture is that Zvi thinks there’s a 70% chance of the following: “Omicron will blow through the US by 3/1/2022, leading to herd immunity and something like the ‘end’ of the COVID-19 pandemic.” I think there’s only a 50% chance of this (and I would’ve had a lower probability before learning that Zvi thinks it). We bet at 60%.

I think the most important takeaway for readers is that Zvi thinks Omicron is going to blow through the US very soon and very quickly. If you think this is likely to end up being true, I think that makes this a good time to be extra cautious, as it implies that the next ~2.5 months are much more dangerous than any time afterward. (Zvi: "The flip side is that if you can't avoid it at all, you might not want to bother trying.")

In an ideal world, we'd be making so many bets like this that our track records would give clear evidence of which of us was a better predictor, overall. But I don't think that's going to happen; it's a lot of work even to nail down a pretty simple, vivid disagreement like this one (and most important disagreements are much harder to reach bets on, and even this one may require a third-party judgment-driven adjustment). I don't think that whichever of us wins this one bet should gain too much credibility relative to the other