(2021-12-28) ZviM Omicron My Current Model

Zvi Mowshowitz: Omicron variant: My Current (12/28) Model. Note that this post mostly does not justify and explain its statements. I document my thinking, sources and analysis extensively elsewhere, little of this should be new.

The personally useful executive summary version first. Omicron has already taken over, most cases are being missed, crunch time is now. Crunch time will likely last 1-2 months. First two shots don’t protect against infection, boosters do somewhat (60%?)....

Here are the old principles that still apply, with adjustments as appropriate: Risks follow Power Laws. Focus on reducing your biggest risks. Sacrifices to the Gods are demanded everywhere. Most intervention effort treats Covid-19 as a morality in which the wicked must be punished, rather than aiming physical interventions to achieve physical results....

Next, how to personally think about Omicron beyond the above....

First, infection.

Importance of air ventilation is the biggest thing I didn’t talk about before.

You are probably going to get Omicron, if you haven’t had it already.

You can probably guard against Omicron if you want to do so badly enough and don’t need to work outside the home, either short term or entirely. This means a P100-style or better mask, if you’re actually trying. It means extreme social distancing and isolation and caring about ventilation.

Next, testing and isolation.

Next, vaccination, prognosis and treatment.

If you do have symptoms or test positive, take at least Zinc and Vitamin D.

If you test positive, consider Fluvoxamine. It is an SSRI

If you test positive and can get it in time, take Paxlovid.

Other modeling observations and general prognosis.

Things will peak in January, or perhaps February (or possibly the last few days of December).

After the peak things will probably decline rapidly, then stabilize at a new normal level.

Once this wave is over and Paxlovid is widely available, restrictions don’t make sense.

Taking action to ‘stop the spread’ mostly no longer makes sense.

Modifying how you live your life also won’t make sense. Covid-19 will be one more disease among many, and life will be marginally worse, but by about April you shouldn’t act substantially differently than if it no longer existed.