(2022-04-28) ZviM Covid-19 4/28/22 Take My Paxlovid Please

Zvi Mowshowitz: Covid-19 4/28/22: Take My Paxlovid, Please. Executive Summary
Paxlovid is available, no one wants it.
Case counts up now that we’re past Easter.
Cases hit local peaks including in NYC, indicating BA.2 wave won’t be too bad.

The Numbers

*That is not many deaths. I don’t know how to interpret the drop being sustained in a way that makes the drop ‘real’ which is why I’m assuming this means that the death counts were previously artificially high.

This in turn makes me wonder if death counts have been artificially high at other times as well.*

New York City cases have plateaued and are falling. This is a big deal because New York was ‘ahead of the curve’ on the current BA.2 wave, and there is uncertainty about how far things are likely to go before they stabilize. If NYC is stabilizing at this low level, it strongly suggests there is nothing to worry about

Physical World Modeling

For any ‘normal’ gathering, at this point in the pandemic, I do not think asking people for tests is reasonable. I can see an exception for exceptionally risky things like group indoor singing.

Paxlovid! Get Your Paxlovid! Anyone? Buehler?

So far we have administered about 500k courses of Paxlovid, which is less than 1/3rd of what was distributed or 1/10th of what was purchased

That does not mean it is time to throw up our hands and stop buying it. If another wave comes, we will need it badly. Even if one doesn’t, over time we should presumably get at least somewhat better at getting Paxlovid to people who need it.

Our policy, as illustrated by this short advice video from the White House correctly advising people to try and get Paxlovid, here is the worst of both worlds. We are giving people the impression that they are not eligible and that taking Paxlovid for themselves would be selfish and unfair to those who need it more, so much so that no one uses our supply at all. Also we are not buying as many doses as we could and soon may be buying none at all.

Pandemics Are Bad and We Should Prevent Them

Maybe even spend some money towards that goal.

It’s not that we should do all of the things, but it’s that we should have a sufficiently functioning government that we should be able to spend some money on some of the things. Yet we don’t.

Prevention and Prevention Prevention Prevention

The FDA is forbidding you from vaccinating your child because they worry that if they approve one vaccine, then later approve another vaccine, then that might be confusing