(2022-12-22) Policygenius Best/Worst Cities For Climate Change

Policygenius: Best & Worst Cities for Climate Change. We looked at the top 50 largest urban areas in the United States and measured them against several climate change indicators to paint a picture of which ones might fare better as temps warm and sea levels rise over the next few decades — and which ones might be worse off.

analyzed data from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and several other studies across six key factors to determine which of those metro areas were the best and worst for climate change.

2017 Rutgers University study of U.S. county-level climate projections from 2040 to 2059 to calculate the average days with extreme heat over 95 degrees Fahrenheit and high wet bulb temperatures above 80 degrees Fahrenheit

data from First Street Foundation to determine the percentage of properties in each city projected to be in a 100-year flood plain in 2050

annualized frequency data from FEMA, which uses occurrences from 2014 to 2021 to calculate the annual frequency of hurricanes, tornadoes, and wildfires in each city.

since we only looked at the 50 largest cities in the U.S., it bears to keep in mind that while San Francisco has the lowest risk on this list, it actually has a much higher risk than many smaller cities in the U.S.

The best cities for climate change

1. San Francisco, California

though Northern California is very prone to wildfires, San Francisco itself is not. Nearby Santa Clara County’s annualized wildfire occurrence is 5,215% higher than San Francisco.

Despite those nearby wildfires affecting air quality, San Francisco still fared better than the average of the cities on this list, with 86% of days in 2021 registering “good” air quality.

2. Seattle, Washington

3. Columbus, Ohio

The biggest risk facing Columbus residents is heat. Ohioans can expect steamier summers come 2050 with an average of 20 days of extreme heat predicted — 18 more days than they’re experiencing now. And unfortunately, that’s not a dry heat

4. Minneapolis, Minnesota

the biggest threat Minneapolis residents face is heat. By 2050, residents can expect around 15 extremely hot days per year — that’s nearly 13 more than today.

5. Baltimore, Maryland

The Charm City can expect an average of 24 days of extreme heat and 11 days of high heat and humidity per year by 2050

sea level isn’t going to be a huge issue over the next 30 years

6. Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Milwaukee might be prepared for the changing climate — scoring high marks for its community resiliency score — but the same can’t be said for its social vulnerability score. The city scores four times lower than the other cities in this top 10 list.

7. Portland, Oregon

higher-than-average percentage of properties flooding by 2050. Around 12% of homes and businesses will be located in 100-year flood zones

8. Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

Situated along three rivers, Pittsburgh has a higher-than-normal portion of homes that will be in 100-year flood plains by 2050: 12.4% versus the average of 11% for the cities in this study. Though this is only up 0.4% from today

*city’s poor air quality. Only 47% of measured days in 2021 were “good,” versus the 63% average.

This is most likely due to high hydrogen sulfide rates caused by steel plants in the area.*

9. Richmond, Virginia

rising sea level and hurricane risk.

10. Denver, Colorado

scores similarly to Portland and Seattle in its risk of wildfires. But unlike those other two cities, it scores below average for air quality — with just 43% of days measuring “good” in 2021.

Unfortunately, the city doesn’t seem to be as good at adapting to the changing climate as others on our best list — scoring fairly low for its community resilience.

The worst cities for climate change

1. Houston, Texas

Texans can expect to see 85 days of extreme heat per year by 2050 — double the average for the cities in our study

the percentage of properties in 100-year flood plains is above average at nearly 16% — an increase of 2.7% from today.

risk of hurricanes is high and tornadoes is very high

So how is the city responding to this climate crisis? Not well

2. Miami, Florida, 3. Tampa, Florida, 4. Jacksonville, Florida, 5. Orlando, Florida

the story is largely the same throughout: There is going to be heat, there is going to be water, and there is going to be wind.

Rising sea levels will impact 5% of properties in Miami, 1.24% in Jacksonville, and 1.05% in Tampa.

6. New Orleans, Louisiana

7. Los Angeles, California

air quality and wildfires. Both are bad now, and we can expect both to get much worse in the coming years.

Just 15% of measured days registered as “good” air quality in LA in 2021

8. Memphis, Tennessee

9. Riverside, California

highest number of extreme heat days of any city in our study: nearly six months — or 178 days.

10. Virginia Beach, Virginia

Its biggest threat? Flooding.