(2023-01-09) Zvi M How To Bounded Distrust

Zvi Mowshowitz: How to Bounded Distrust (short version of (2022-02-13) ZviM On Bounded Distrust). Scott Alexander points out that the media, from The New York Times to Infowars, very rarely lies explicitly and directly. Alas, the media often misleads. It implies and insinuates that which is not. (journalism, fiat news)

Nor does it much care. They cite someone else, and claim this excuses them from all responsibility.

Then there are the op-ed pages and headlines, which are far worse.

This leads to a situation of Bounded Distrust, which I analyze at length here. I then work through some examples here. If you want to think about the problem in detail, start at these links. A shorter, more practical version was needed. This attempts to offer that.

What are the Rules?

Some special rules about the headline. They also apply to op-eds

Allowed to lie.

The body of a news article is more reliable. The rules are simple. The article:

Is not allowed to lie, in a way that could count as being physically falsified.

Is allowed to do almost anything else

Can call anyone an expert

When the expected consequences of rule breaking exceed any plausible benefits from breaking the rules, you can mostly trust that the rules above are followed.

There is no getting around the need to consider and examine the original source.

For each source at all levels, and each class of source, one must maintain a Translation Matrix that lays out what rules they can be assumed to be following.

There is zero obligation for media to verify their source is not spouting Obvious Nonsense.

If the source is a politician, assume they lie, about everything, all the time.

Some sources, especially governments and corporations, have different rules, and in some contexts engage in bounded lying where they shift expectations a fixed amount in a positive direction

Once you realize articles are sculpted to be maximally supportive of Narrative, it becomes possible to read them as a Soviet would Pravda. Every word is present for a reason.

Every odd word choice (given the house style) is because the standard word choice could not be used.

In all cases, apply the principle that This Is Not a Coincidence Because Nothing Is Ever a Coincidence

The choice to write the article or say anything at all is also a choice. Ask why.

Think about what they are being careful not to say.

For non-media sources, one must figure out what rules set applies and act accordingly.