(2025-02-05) McKenzie Continues AI semi-skepticism

Patrick McKenzie: It’s only very probably as big as the Internet, which I believe is the crowning achievement of the human race. ((2024-09-30) ZviM AI And The Technological Richter Scale)

• I am not moved by fairly casual reading of many years of arguments that suggest e.g. my children will not see their teenage years due to rapid takeoff. I put that risk near global nuclear annihilation.
• I think I give that argument substantially more credence than almost all educated people do, though. One reason: when advocates for it debate people who think risk is zero, the arguments for zero are self-evidently not powerful arguments.
• This p(doom) codes as “AI (AGI) skeptic” if one’s closer to “20% over next 15 years” and codes as “crazy Internet AI cultist” if one thinks AI is just tech’s new way to raise money now that bloom off the crypto rose.

This is the same level as 6mo prior: (2024-08-08) McKenzie, Bet On It; Zvi Mowshowitz On Professional Gambling, Trading, And AI Futures