(2026-09-04) Beyond The Saaspocalypse The Winners And Losers Of2026so Far

Jason Lemkin: Beyond the SaaSpocalypse: The Winners and Losers of 2026 (So Far). The SaaSpocalpyse is over. But it's not that simple. There are winners, losers, and the ones that have just barely bounced back.

Roughly $2 trillion of market cap came out of the group.
Then it came back. Just not ... evenly.

The recovery at the index level is close to complete. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV) closed September 3 at $106.81, up about 40% from its April low near $74.

But inside the recovery sits a 117-point spread. CrowdStrike is up 83% on the year. monday.com is down 36%. Snowflake up 73%. Figma, despite record growth, down -35%.

CrowdStrike, Twilio, and Snowflake are all up more than 70%. HubSpot and monday.com are down more than 33%.

Twilio and monday.com both grew 22% in their June quarters and finished 109 points apart.

The top variable: whether AI workloads land on your meter, and also what multiple you carried into January.

The winners: consumption and security, up 54% to 83%

Every name in this group either bills by consumption or sells into a budget that AI expands. When an enterprise deploys AI agents, it generates more logs to monitor, more data to query, more traffic to route, and a larger attack surface to defend.

Atlassian ran the widest range in the grou from -57% to +24%!.

Atlassian disclosed more than 1 million monthly active users on its MCP server and Teamwork Graph CLI.

The ... non-winners. The ones beaten up the most: seat-priced mid-caps, still down more than 33%

monday.com is down 35.5% through the September 2 close. Revenue grew 24% in Q1 and 22% in Q2. The full-year guide is 18% to 19%, down from a Q1 raise. The company restructured in Q2 and moved to consumption-based pricing for its AI products, and AI ARR doubled quarter over quarter to 17% of net new ARR

The private market kept score in the same direction. Airtable, valued at nearly $12 billion at its 2021 peak, agreed to sell to Bending Spoons for under $1.3 billion.

(see many graphs)