Epsilon Theory

Group blog thinking about investment management and reality. https://www.epsilontheory.com/



Ben Hunt, Rusty Guinn

Ben's "economic plan": a) take risk-free rates to 3.5%, b) unwind Fed balance sheet @$20b/mth, c) break up tech and banking monopolies, d) $1m lifetime cap gains tax exemption + progressive tax >$1m, e) means test + raise age on soc sec, f) nat’lize health insurers, g) mothball huge chunks of DoD.

I should probably make a glossary/pointer

  • rhino: There’s one essential book for understanding the social dynamics of the brutish know-nothing State, and it’s Ionesco’s Rhinoceros. Or you can watch the play.
  • coyote: The smartest animals on my farm aren’t really on my farm at all. They’re the coyotes who live in the woods... Unfortunately, coyotes are too smart for their own good. They are, to use the wonderful Brit phrase, too clever by half. They are, to use a post-modern, TV reality show lingo, not good in the meta-game... Every truly disruptive discovery or innovation in history is the work of coyotes. Financial innovation is no exception. And this is Reason #1 why financial innovation ALWAYS ends in tears, because coyotes are too clever by half. The Spanish Prisoner con works best on coyotes. A coyote is a clever puzzle-solver who really has the best of intentions. Who really wants to be successful for the right reasons... And who is just a little bit on the make... The defining characteristic of the Spanish Prisoner con is that the mark believes he is doing well while doing good.
  • raccoon: Financial innovation, more than any other sort of innovation, attracts the raccoons — con men and hucksters at best, outright thieves at worst. We can all chuckle and laugh about the obvious hucksters and con men in crypto-world, the obvious raccoons like Arthur Hayes.
  • sheep
  • wolf
  • pack (tribe)

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