John Cutler: The Messifesto. One of the defining aspects of my 2021 was being exposed to hundreds of teams from around the world. It was fun, but also very challenging. While increasing my ability to pattern match and offer plausible recommendations, I also realized just how vast this space is, and how little I ultimately know. (more)

lead of Product Team, Two-Pizza Team. See Product Team Members Report To The Team Leader.

Anthony Fauci Explains Why Public Wasn't Told to Wear Masks When Pandemic Began. Back when the coronavirus pandemic cases started picking up in early Spring, many Americans and experts asked: Should we be wearing masks? (filter mask) (more)

Zeynep Tufekci: The C.D.C. Is Hoping You’ll Figure Covid-19 Out on Your Own. While Omicron’s mutations make it exceptionally good at causing breakthrough cases even in people who have been vaccinated or previously infected, they also render it less able to effectively infect the lower lungs... it’s just luck that this highly transmissible variant appears to be less dangerous than other variants to those with prior immunity. If it had been more deadly — as Delta has been — the U.S. government’s haphazard and disorganized response would have put the whole country much more at risk. (more)

The Biden Administration Rejected an October Proposal for “Free Rapid Tests for the Holidays”. On October 22, a group of COVID-19 testing experts joined a Zoom call with officials from the Biden administration and presented a strategy for overhauling America’s approach to testing. (more)

Agile Software Development methodology for project of 21-40 people.

Zvi Mowshowitz Omicron variant Post #12. Schools, hospitals and all businesses face massive disruptions from people unable to work, even with the new CDC isolation guidelines. (more)

Email service/app/address from BaseCamp. https://www.hey.com (more)

Mike Hadlow: Coconut Headphones: Why Agile Has Failed. (more)

Applied Divinity Studies: Make COVID Predictions, Take My Money: On Zvi, Bets and Taking Ideas Seriously. Zvi and Holden are betting on when Covid ends. I am taking Zvi’s side and offering the same bet, except 10x larger. (2021-12-23) Karnofsky Bet With Zvi About Omicron (more)

John Sutherland: Node idea. I have seen the future of literary criticism - and, as John Reed said - 'it works'. Works better, in fact, than Reed's beloved Soviet Union ever worked. And it will work, I believe, for other humanities disciplines. Science I'm not so sure about. But perhaps there too (more)

Bret Victor: Ten Brighter Ideas? An Explorable Explanation. As with many areas of public interest, the common wisdom surrounding energy conservation consists of myths and legends, rules of thumb and superstitions. We're given guidelines as soundbites, catchy but insubstantial. We trust them blindly, not knowing whether our actions make any significant impact. (more)

Zvi Mowshowitz: Omicron variant Post #11. South Africa, the UK and Denmark are no longer uniquely informative places, so I’m combining all the areas into one section now.... There are a few cities where we may have peaked, but otherwise outside of South Africa? Not so much. (more)

Sasha Chapin: Inner Warfare, or, It's Ishita Arora's World and I'm Just Living in It. There is just something obstinate in me that says, no, do not do the right thing. (more)

Zvi Mowshowitz: Omicron variant Post #9. There are three major fronts. There’s the question of what is happening and how many cases we have, there’s the question of how people are reacting and will react to it, and there’s the question of severity. (more)

Zvi Mowshowitz: What's Up With the CDC Nowcast? The CDC nowcast last week was 2.7% Omicron. That seemed like a reasonable guess. (more)

Zvi Mowshowitz: Omicron variant: My Current (12/28) Model. Note that this post mostly does not justify and explain its statements. I document my thinking, sources and analysis extensively elsewhere, little of this should be new. (more)

Sasha Chapin: A Brief Practical Guide to Being an Infinite Player. I was riveted, moved, and completely annoyed (by Finite And Infinite Games)... what an irritating style of writing! (more)

Scott Alexander: The Phrase "No Evidence" Is A Red Flag For Bad Science Communication. Every single one of these statements that there was “no evidence” for is currently considered true or at least pretty plausible. (more)

Zvi Mowshowitz: Omicron variant Post #8. Omicron continues to take over. Official reactions have been relatively mild, with only the Netherlands entering a lockdown that I have seen. Private reaction has been more robust, which is the best way to do it (more)