or, more generally, Climate Change
area of Environmentalism concern
- see esp Copenhagen Consensus
my rough beliefs (Jun'2006)
- Global Warming is almost certainly happening
- there's much less certainty as to how much of it is due to human action vs just variation (Little Ice Age vs Medieval Warm Period)
- there's even less certainty as to how catastrophic the effects will be
- there's even less certainty as to whether any realistic changes in human action could reverse/stop the effect
- some Public Policy that might make sense
Jan'2015: Matt Ridley on his "ClimateLukewarmer" beliefs, and the attacks they garner. I think recent global warming is real, mostly man-made and will continue but I no longer think it is likely to be dangerous and I think its slow and erratic progress so far is what we should expect in the future. That last year was the warmest yet, in some data sets, but only by a smidgen more than 2005, is precisely in line with such lukewarm thinking.
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