Social Security

Welfare for old people who already have money. :)

May'2024: The program’s combined funds are now projected to run out in 2035 — one year later than was previously anticipated. At that time, 83% of benefits will be payable, unless Congress takes action before that date to prevent an across-the-board benefit cut... While the national debt is $34 trillion, Social Security’s unfunded liability is around $22 trillion, Fichtner said. To make the program solvent for 75 years, an upfront sum of $22 trillion would be necessary today.

Apr'2023 (Cato): According to the Social Security and Medicare Boards of Trustees’ 2023 reports, Medicare and Social Security now exceed $78 trillion in long-term unfunded obligations. This equates to an obligation of more than $600,000 for every U.S. household.

• the main bullshit here is that almost all of that is Medicare, esp parts B/D.
• I think this is on an infinite time horizon, vs the "standard" 75 years...
• for SocialSecurity alone:
  • 75-year horizon gives About $6.5 trillion present value shortfall over the next 75 years (in 2023 dollars).
  • infinite horizon gives Roughly $14 trillion (or more)

A kind of Pension/Insurance? Bah, mostly just a Welfare/Transfer Program.

Arnold Kling considers some possibilities. (2003) It is fair to conclude that the Social Security problem is largely an artifact of the retirement age. Raising the retirement age to something like 73 would make Social Security quite manageable.

A big factor is the Retirement Age used to calculate when benefits are given out. Does it make sense that it's still 65 (going up to 67 in 2012 I think)?

Why is there no Means Testing?

Benefits grow based on wages, and should instead probably be pegged to general CPI Inflation.

Why do you need a Social Security Number, if the money you get back really has nothing to do with how much you put in? When I took civics/Social Studies in school, a teacher said that someone suggested eliminating the numbers to FDR, on the basis that managing them just created pointless expense. And he replied that it was important for the american people to feel like they were putting money into their own account, like an enforced savings plan.