(2021-11-04) ZviM Covid 11/04 The After Times

Zvi Mowshowitz: COVID-19 11/4: The After Times. The hope is that the pandemic will be fully and truly over because case counts will be sufficiently low, and vaccination rates sufficiently high, that we can all agree to move on and resume our lives. The fear is that this will never happen.

At this point, that potential reaction is the true risk factor. Children as young as five can be vaccinated, and anyone who wants one can effectively get a booster shot. There’s no risk left in the room that is different from many other background risks we all take every day.

As far as my personal life is concerned, the After Times started last week. Pandemic over. I’ll still have to flash my vaccination card and toggle my mask on and off as required, but that’s all for show. It’s over.

Executive Summary
Child vaccinations for ages 5-11 good to go.
Case counts may no longer be declining.
Vaccine mandate compliance very high when mandates are actually enforced.

The Numbers

the chances of things fading away into the background that easily seem a lot lower than they did last week.

Vaccinations

Vaccine Effectiveness

Vaccine Mandates

San Francisco wastes zero time, moves to impose vaccine requirements on five year old children

That which is not forbidden is mandatory. That which is not mandatory is forbidden.

It makes sense that the vast majority of the unvaccinated, when push comes to shove and their job is on the line, choose vaccination. And that’s exactly what happens.

From 66% to 98% means that 94% of all unvaccinated employees agreed to get vaccinated.

What’s funny about the NYPD situation is that the same people who would have cheered and laughed at the cops for quitting, are also cheering and laughing at the cops for not quitting.

This is in contrast to places where the alternative is weekly testing, especially when that weekly testing doesn’t actually happen. Those tactics are less effective.

It also makes sense that many of the few who don’t do that are taking a stand for actual reasons, like allergic reactions.

There’s supposed to be medical exceptions available, but inevitably some people aren’t being given exemptions they need, because if you are sure to give out all the exemptions people need then lots of other people will get fake exemptions, so it’s very hard to not have this ruined for everyone.

New York’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority no longer pays a $500,000 death benefit to the families of subway, bus and commuter rail workers who die of covid if the workers were unvaccinated at the time of death.

NPIs Including Mask and Testing Mandates

This week’s investigation into our lack of reasonably priced or widely available rapid tests finds the same thing as every other investigation: The FDA dragged their feet sufficiently to drive most providers out of the market, so the few that are approved charge a lot.