(2023-02-23) Wapo Which US Cities Will Fare Best In A Warming World And Which Will Be Hit Hardest

Which U.S. cities will fare best in a warming world — and which will be hit hardest? Global warming will reshape the economies of American cities, and at the top of the list of metro areas that will be worst hit is San Francisco, according to a report by Moody’s Analytics released Thursday.

determine which of the United States’ 100 most populous metropolitan areas had the greatest risks in the coming decades. It examined two different categories of risks: the long-term ones of drought, heat and sea-level rise, and the short-term shocks of natural disasters including hurricanes, wildfires and floods. The scores reflect a city’s exposure and their potential damage given their local economies.

New York City faced an especially tricky future, “given that Manhattan is surrounded by water and fre­quent flooding could prove crippling to an economy where much activity — and the ability to travel — is tied to low-lying land or subway tunnels,” according to the report.

Here’s the full list of the top 10 metro areas most exposed to the combined effect of heat, sea-level rise and water stress, according to the Moody’s report: See list

Here’s the full list of the top 10 metro areas with the least risk: See list

The report also tried to project the economic consequences of adaptation to climate change.

if the United States takes swift action to transition away from fossil fuels, energy-dependent states such as Alaska and Oklahoma are hit harder economically than others. If it delays action, states with greater physical risks such as Florida, New Jersey and New York will face more painful economic consequences.

Florida, Louisiana, South Carolina and North Carolina were the worst-off states for climate-driven disasters, while the worst hit cities were nearly all in the Carolinas and Florida.

Some areas come out relatively well on some of the indicators. Kentucky, Louisiana and Tennessee have aquifers that insulate them from drought

“The Midwest strikes me as the part of the country that is probably the least vulnerable,” Kamins said.