Idea Futures

Using Market forces to support accurate ideas (descriptive? predictive anticipation?)

one sub-type: Long Bets

aka Prediction Market https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market

Robin Hanson says : Our policy-makers and media rely too much on the "Expert" advice of a self-interested insider's club of pundits and big-shot academics. These pundits are rewarded too much for telling good stories, and for supporting each other, rather than for being "right". Instead, let us create betting markets on most controversial questions, and treat the current market odds as our best expert consensus.

  • see his Futarchy application, which is even more recent

The Foresight Exchange is currently active: http://www.ideosphere.com/

Lots of other publications: http://hanson.gmu.edu/ifpubs.html

The Earth Web Book points out the importance of writing "contracts" (stating a belief in a precise and "settle-able" way) to having functioning markets.

John Brunner's Shockwave Rider also involves such markets.

Iowa Electronic Markets is well-known, esp. for political forecasts (Presidential Election)

Bryan Alexander runs the NITLE market. Here we use a market system to learn about emergent practices for higher education. (College Education)


Edited: |