Thinking In Bets

The mental practice of acknowledging the uncertainty/risk of every belief or decision or action.

Phrase comes from Thinking In Bets by Annie Duke ISBN:0735216371

• also Winning and losing are loose signals of decision quality. We need to separate decision quality from outcome quality.

cf Little Bet (compounding results through learning), Model (Model building), Belief, Experiment, Scientific Method, Prediction Market, Disputation Arena; it's Claims All The Way Down; the Map Is Not The Territory

Perception, Interpretation

2017-08-08-GerransLethePsychedelicsWorkByViolatingOurModelsOfSelfAndTheWorld

Pragmatism, Operationalism

Digital Philosophy

Action

Life

• Effective Entrepreneur
• Intervention Roulette
• Experiment Without Limits - hmm only a tiny bit in there, despite the title
• Model Agnosticism
• Claim-Refactoring Service
• related: incremental/trial (Little-Bet) models: Apprenticeship, Stair-step, Side-gig...

Public Policy

• Futarchy
• Claim-Refactoring Service

Product Management

• Data-Informed Product Management, Quadruple-Loop Product Management
• North Star Playbook
• Shape Up
• (2011-04-20) Lean Agile Production Vs Theory Building
• Portfolio

OODA, loops All The Way Down