A 20th Century Economic Theory
The Great Depression may have been triggered by monetary/economic BigGov policies, but it was probably caused by the loss of farm and manufacturing jobs (Economic Transition, Technological Revolutions And Financial Capital).
The Great Depression was not "solved" by the New Deal. In fact, the New Deal may have lengthened the depression (Great Duration). (On the other hand, it probably did reduce the number of people starving to death in the meantime.)
- to state that a little differently, in 1946 the US was the only industrial power in a position to sell to the rest of the world (because all the factories in Europe and Japan were bombed to pieces). So Globalization worked for us for awhile, as we traded finished goods for raw materials.
- Charles Hugh Smith believes we really started importing from other countries as part of Cold War bribery. (Trade Deficit)
- Then the whole game was papered over with debt (National Debt, Consumer Credit).
- And as the Trade Deficit and Federal Deficit got huge, it forced us away from the Gold Standard (we killed Bretton Woods in 1971).
- Was it really about the end of domestic Cheap Oil? (US Peak Oil was hit 1970. First OPEC OilCrisis was 1973.)
- Wages flattened since the early 1970s. (GDI)
- Even if a bunch of Wall St guys deserve to go to jail, they were just the trigger, while the real cause is another Economic Transition due to IT.
- So narrow attempts at "fixing finance" may not have any effect (though un-breaking it may reduce a barrier to adjustment). But big changes to the financial Game Rule-s might trigger the Turning Point.
- A Network Economy of SmallWorld. The problem isn't too many capitalists, it's too few.
- Dismantle the Corporate Welfare that's making it harder for SmallCo to survive (relative to BigCo and BigGov)
- Aim for Resilience and Anti-Fragility. Stop living off credit (incl mortgage). Stop your Consumerism. LocalWorld, Slow World.
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